But it isn't a matter of the Academy saying "This movie is worth X nominations" and then figuring out what categories to give those nominations in. It is a category by category decision. So which categories that you thought FotR deserved last year did you think TTT did not deserve this year?
From what I have read it sounds like the music branch has decided that music from a sequel is by definition derivative and therefore ineligible for either the score or the song categories. This is true regardless of how much new music is written. Does that sound right to you? That was two nominations (and one win) that FotR got that TTT didn't.
Similarly, the hair and makeup branch decided that TTT (and presumably RotK next year) was ineligible on the grounds that everything they did was just an extension / recreation of what they did for FotR. Never mind that there were many new characters and makeup effects relative to what appeared in FotR. Do you agree with that decision?
I can see it being argued that Ian McKellen didn't put on as impressive of a performance in TTT as in FotR, largely because he wasn't asked / required to do as much.
For Directing, I seems to me that the challenges in putting TTT together were even greater than those of FotR. This is due to the distributed nature of the story and getting the large group / huge army scale battles done well. Or did you think that PJ did a less skillful job of keeping the movie together this time than last?
I have no idea happened in the cinematography category. They won last year and didn't even get nominated this time.
From your earlier comments, it sounds like you agree with TTT not getting an adaptd screenplay nomination.
FotR also got a costume nomination. I have seen a quote from one of this year's nominees saying that TTT seemed to them to be an "odd" omission.
That's 8 categories where FotR was nominated where TTT wasn't. On the other hand TTT got nominated for Sound Effects Editing where FotR was not. Naturally, it can always be argued that some of those nominations fell away not because of anything to do with Lord of the Rings or how it is perceived but just because this was a stronger year than last year in some categories. Maybe that's what happened in cinematography.
And, of course, no matter how good RotK turns out to be it will get fewer nomination than FotR because it won't be eligible in 3 categories and I don't see it being able to make up for that in the other categories.