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I believe that the 3 TLT DVDs will be made and sold. Warner Brothers appear to have given him the money as a sort of pilot.
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As noted by others, there is going to be one disc with three stories on it, readily convertable to a "two hour" TV movie if a network or cable channel is interested. And WB hasn't just handed over a big bag of money to JMS and said "go to it". Expenses are being paid by the studio week by week as they are incurred.
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Whether a fourth one will be made is a different matter. I suspect that TLT-4 and a series will not be green-lite until the sales are in.
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Hard to say, actually. WB probably has a pretty good (conservative) esitmate of how many
TLT sets it is likely to sell, based on what is now a very extensive set of numbers from the original movie disc,
B5, the movie set,
Crusade and the
Rangers pilot. If they can control costs, they may be confident that there is no way they can
lose money on this project, and they may go right into the second batch of tales and continue on from there without waiting for sales figures or a TV deal for the first disc.
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Even then there will be an argument within the various parts of Warner Brothers. If they treat it like a film they will want sales to be 10 times the production and marketing costs.
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I see you're still using the
Big Book of Made-up Statistics as a reference for your posts.
1) Warner Bros. cannot arbitrarily "decide to treat" a given project as a theatrical relase, DVD original or etc. Union contracts treat different types of releases differently. And you can't "treat" a DVD produced for DVD "as a film" if it has never been releaed theatrically
because the consumer isn't going to treat it that way.
2) The DVD is presumably being procduced by/for the new Direct-To-DVD division of Warner Home Video. So there is really only one "part of Warner Bros." that JMS has to deal with.
3) "...they will want sales to be 10 times the production and marketing costs." I assume you got this out of some (not terribly accurate) article about either theatrical releases and ticket sale, or releases of theatrical movies on DVD. Either way it doesn't apply, and nobody use such an arbitrary formula for calculating much of anything. (The old "rule of thumb" for theatrical films is that domestic gross ticket sales had to equal 3 to 4 times production cost - exclusive of prints, advertising and promoiton - for a film to break even . That was before international sales were as big a factor as they are now and before home video. So obvisouly "10 times production costs" is way too high an amount to demand for going forward with a project Nobody would make a film if they had to be assured of $10 in gross sales for every dollar spent in producing and selling a film.)
For a DVD release of a theatrical film there
are no "production costs" because the film itself has already been produced and been paid for (one hopes) by worldwide threatrical ticket sales. A DVD release need only make back its own masting and extras production costs, plus enough to cover residuals.
For a direct to DVD project the actual content production costs obviously have to be factored in. But since,
by definition a direct to DVD project is not a theatrical film and can't be "treate" like a theatrical film, your "10 times cost" figure can't even be considered an estimate since it isn't in any way based in reality.
Regards,
Joe